Saturday, October 6, 2007

When will the Commodities bull run end

Here's one that I called and I missed. I told my brother Jim 4 years ago that commodities were taking off. What I was wrong about was I also believed inflation would go with it. Further I could've never guessed something as boring as copper could be a good investment so I never participated in commodities except for a short term trade in DBC. Notice this last spike on the chart was on little volume. It may be optimistic speculation driving that. Notice also the volume spike corresponding to the recent dip in prices. Commodities are a play on China if you believe that run will go forever then stick with commodities otherwise it may be time for a more cautious position. I hate shorting and put options except when done for very short time periods. We all know shorting and puts are against the overall trend of the market. But if your spotting short term market inefficiencies it may be the time.

No comments: