Sunday, December 2, 2007

Update

Sold GOOG at 725 and bought back at 650...now it's about 690ish and am a little concenred about it turning down. All said I don't see much in the market right now that can beat it....at least with some credibility.
I'm thinking about selling BA and DNA, but still absolutely believe in them. Problems is, when will the market accept my point of view and start buying. I'm not selling until I find something better.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

In with DNA out with FRX

I sold FRX and bought DNA. DNA has a little higher P/E but I believe has a lot more growth potential and great management. Don't know if I mentioned it but I also opened a position in SBUX. This may not have been wise because I'm trying to guess the bottom. It's usually safer to find a trend and ride it (the trend is your friend). While I'm trying to catch a falling knife. I'll quickly bail if I don't think I've found the bottom.

Saturday, November 3, 2007

Genentech is finally affordable and recession proof?


Genentech (DNA) is viewed as the best place to work by my friends in the biotech community. The only problem is that they are located in San Francisco. Also if you buy in to these credit worries and recession talk this is still a buy. I think I will swap my FRX for DNA on Monday, I believe DNA is the best in class biotech and has the earnings growth to prove it. I could see them dropping at most to 60 if the economy sours.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Here's what I love, EPS growth that's not stopping, p/e coming back to reasonable levels and a chart that looks like it has formed a base to the downward spiral....is it time to buy call options??? This stock will need a robust economy to be sucessful.

GOOG Overbought????

The p/e is 55 but the psychological level of hitting 700 might make for a good temporary exit point. I do think it could easily be 800-900 a year from now if all goes well in the broader economy. It could very well have a correction back to 640 sometime soon. I also think it could see the 500s again if the economy takes a dive. It was 460 only two months ago and very little has changed in the fundamentals except a bit more optomistic view of the economy. So another thing that could pump it up is the introduction of the g-phone/google software on many phones.
I'm watching LULU because Laurel is a fan of their work-out clothing. I would also like to dump MR, I would like to get 5% from it first an exit of 42-44 would make me happy. I'm also getting impatient with FRX but feel it has low downside risk so am holding on for now. Warren Buffet is doing well with my money in BRK-B.

Friday, October 26, 2007

What's next

Stocks in China are bugging me, I feel like I'm missing out on the party but refuse to pay ridiculous multiples. I'm still begrudgingly in MR, I have a tight stop order to minimize losses if it tanks. I really believe the US stock market will march up from here over the next couple of months...I'm often wrong on these calls but feel stronger on this call than I normally do. I think msft is starting a new bull run but will wait for a dip to buy any more shares.
I may consider selling brk-b if I need to free up some trading money. I almost bought CFC yesterday, but I try not to catch falling knives. I may try tiering into this one a little at a time if it finds a bottom. Anyway, I cant think, Laurel is making Lasagna...must EAT.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

MSFT


Microsoft may have started something here. I bought a boat load a few days ago in anticipation of their earnings release. They reported a 23% increase in profits on the back of the new Halo game and windows products. I'm also suspect, being a global company, that the weak dollar isn't hurting them either. It may still be worth buying a pullback here. Although I'm still a fan of BA for new money. I'm really starting to believe the market is gearing up for a good run into the end of the year. I feel the more news articles I read about recession the better a time to buy and likewise when you start reading a mess of articles about how great things will be it then is a good time to sell. There is a real rythm to these things highs and lows in the market.